Wisconsin football must stop a Heisman Trophy contender to upset No. 1 Oregon

The Badgers (5-4, 3-3 Big Ten) face their toughest challenge yet as Oregon (10-0, 7-0) visits Camp Randall Stadium for the first time since 2000 at 6:30 p.m. Saturday. Wisconsin had won the first three games in the series, including a 27-23 victory on Sept. 9, 2000, before the Ducks have won the last three. Most recently it was Justin Herbert leading a game-winning touchdown drive in the fourth quarter of a 28-27 win over the Badgers, then led by Jonathan Taylor, on Jan. 1, 2020 at the Rose Bowl.

Another talented quarterback awaits in Dillon Gabriel, a contender for the Heisman Trophy, for an offense that has not been held under 31 points in conference play. He has the second best odds at +310 to win the award behind Colorado's two-way star Travis Hunter, according to the Action Network.

The last time the Badgers played the No. 1 team, they beat Ohio State on Oct. 17, 2010 at Camp Randall. They are 4-16 all-time against No. 1 teams. And though the Badgers are on a two-game losing streak, they could snap that with a second consecutive win over a No. 1 team.

Here are three keys to victory for the Badgers.

Improve on first down

Almost half of Badgers’ first-down plays (23 of 52) the past two weeks have gone for 1 yard or less. That puts the offense behind schedule and couple those results with a similar lack of success on second down and it leads to Wisconsin facing third-and-long. The Badgers’ average distance to gain on third downs the past two weeks has been a bit above 8 yards.

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Oregon’s defense is fast and versatile, but if there’s any potential crack in the armor to attack it’s that Wisconsin has more beef on the line of scrimmage and might be able to create some movement between the tackles. It’s not going to be sexy, but the Badgers have to get at least 3 yards on first down to keep the offense from being forced into straight drop backs.

Try to beat up the receivers at the line

Wisconsin’s secondary should be well rested after a bye week and a quasi-bye at Iowa after the Hawkeyes attempted just 10 passes. That freshness needs to be an advantage against the Ducks, a team with a receiving corps that is about as talented as any Wisconsin has seen this season. Oregon’s top receiver, Tez Johnson, suffered an arm/shoulder injury two weeks ago at Michigan and is questionable.

The Badgers aren’t likely to hold up in coverage for too long against this unit, so disrupting the timing of routes and causing some kind of hesitation between quarterback and target could help. Boundary cornerback Nyzier Fourqurean has been arguably the best among the corners at disrupting routes, but everyone in the secondary plays a role in being physical at the line.

Play with abandon

Among the many things missing for Wisconsin two weeks ago at Iowa was anything out of the norm to try to ignite a spark, especially on offense. The defense tried a handful of different rushes, but Iowa’s offensive line dominated the affair to such a level that nothing mattered.

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No one expects Wisconsin to pull off this upset. The betting line has the Ducks as a two-touchdown favorite and nothing from how this Wisconsin program has played against ranked opponents in recent years suggest that the Badgers can put together four good quarters against an elite team. Wisconsin should try some off-the-wall schemes to possibly add some variance in what looks like it’ll be a third consecutive rough night in primetime.

Here are three keys to victory for the Ducks.

Keep Dillon Gabriel out of harm’s way

Oregon’s got eyes on the College Football Playoff and a win over Wisconsin guarantees the Ducks will be playing in the Big Ten Conference championship game. Be that as it may, Oregon must be careful with their star quarterback.

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Oregon has a pretty good offensive line, though the PFF blocking grades don’t love the way the unit has performed (No. 48 pass blocking team, No. 62 run blocking). Gabriel’s mobility helps save the group from sacks — opponents have just 10 sacks on Oregon’s 353 drop backs — and the Ducks are allowing just 6.1 pressures per game.

Gabriel has to ensure he’s smart with his decisions to run and continue getting the ball out to make sure he makes it to the bye week healthy.

Load the box and press

Wisconsin’s limitations on offense have been exposed in plain view the past two weeks. Once a defense limits the Badgers' rushing attack, the offense has little ability to sustain drives.

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Oregon’s run defense has been solid this year, allowing 121.4 yards per game (11th in the Big Ten), but they have four games allowing fewer than 100 yards on the ground. Oregon would be wise to add extra bodies to the front and play press coverage on the outside as the Badgers' wide receivers have been inconsistent in their ability to beat man coverage. The Ducks play about one-third of their coverage snaps in man, per PFF, but Oregon’s tendencies may be a bit skewed by the fact that they’ve been comfortably ahead in second halves so frequently that they might be sitting back in zone more than they would be in close games.

Clean football is crucial

The disparity of talent, momentum and postseason stakes between the two teams on the field Saturday is stark. But having more to lose puts the onus on Oregon to avoid the kind of mistakes that put an upset on the table.

Oregon has only turned the ball over nine times this season, less than once per game, so continuing that against a Badgers team desperate to find ways to steal possessions and keep the Ducks' offense off the field is paramount. Oregon also needs to keep its wits about it for anything tricky on offense or special teams from the Badgers.

Don't be surprised if the Ducks are aggressive on fourth down in the first half. Getting a lead and forcing Wisconsin to play pass-first increases the chances of Oregon pulling away early.